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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."