🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.