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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their new city leader this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd